Pandy's Super Bowl Analysis

2012-01-24T17:10:00.001-05:00

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Pandy's Super Bowl Pick

Giants + 3.5 over Patriots (at Indianapolis)

I'll have more thorough analysis of this game later in the week but I've done some research already and I've decided to pick the Giants here and I'm betting early before the line drops because I think the line will move lower and it would not surprise me to see the Patriots 2 to 2.5 pt favorites on game day. I think you could make a good case that the wrong team is favored, but the odds makers make the line based on how the money will be bet, not on which team is the strongest.

A few points I'd like to address. First of all, I've read some remarks on boards and from the media about reasons why the Patriots will win that go something like this..."The Giants already beat the Patriots this year and it's hard to beat a great team two times in one season" "Bill Belichick has never lost to a team twice in one season" "Tom Brady wants revenge for when the Giants ruined the Patriots unbeaten season in the 2008 Super Bowl"

Let me say that these "reasons" for liking the Patriots are the reason why most bettors losemoney. They are inconsequential and meaningless. Tom Brady is not going to try harder in this game because of any stupid revenge factor. It's the Super Bowl. Both teams are going to be playing their hearts out. Bill Belichick is a great coach but even if its true that one of his teams never lost to the same team twice in one year, that's also meaningless because there's a first time for everything. All this stuff about revenge, it's utter nonsense.

There are two types of Super Bowls. A). One team is clearly superior and they win by out playing the other team, because they're better. B). The two teams are very closely matched and one team gets more lucky breaks (turnovers) than the other team and they win. If you look at the championship games from Sunday, both games were as close as you can get. The winning teams had better luck, the Ravens missed a field goal and had the winning touch down knocked out of the receivers hand, and the 49ers punt returner handed the Giants the win with two turnovers. Both games were B games, luck decided the outcome.

So, in the Super Bowl, if it's a close gamely all the way, either the Giants or the Patriots will make one or two key mistakes that cost them game. Or, one team will play much better and win the game because they are the better team. I would say that around 70 to 75% of the Super Bowls are "A" games where one team is clearly better than the other team.

Now here is part of my analysis. First of all, the Giants beat the Patriots 24-20 when they met in November. In that game, which was played in New England, the stats on 1st downs, passing yards, running yards were almost identical. The Giants had 23 first downs, the Patriots had 23 first downs. The Giants ran for 111 yards, the Patriots ran for 106 yards. The Patriots had 82 yards more passing. Eli Manning was not sacked, Brady was sacked twice.

So the first meeting between these two teams was close.

A few key changes this time around. 1). The Patriots defense, which is ranked as one of the worst in football, is playing much better now. 2). The Giants defense, which is not well ranked either, is playing much better now. 3). The Giants played without their top rusher, Ahmad Bradshaw in the first matchup. 4). The Giants also played without wide receiver Hakeem Nicks in the first matchup. Nicks finished the season 12th in the league in receiving despite missing several games.

More to come

RECAP: I hit both bets Sunday, which put me at 7 wins against 3 losses for the playoffs. This pushed my record against the spread to 32 wins and 21 losses (60%). My record on Best Bets for the regular season was 58%. I've picked 8 out of the last 10 Super Bowl's correctly against the spread. Right now I'm leaning towards the Giants but I have to study some of the stats before giving my pick and analysis.

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Pandy's Super Bowl Analysis